Rinse and repeat what we've been saying about this Pittsburgh Pirates team: they are now 16-5 straight up this season as a favorite when fewer than 50% of the moneyline money is on them (39% now). It's not just the money either, the bets show the same story: the Pirates are 15-6 straight up this season as a favorite when fewer than 50% of the moneyline bets are on them (41% now). Both systems are live again this afternoon. The MLB prides itself on being a "sports competition," a legitimate operation where sports betting and the outcomes on the field have nothing to do with each other. The numbers say otherwise. On the surface, the Pirates are 31-29 as favorites this season, winning 51.7% of those games, nothing that jumps off the page. That overall record is hiding something though. Split those same games by where the public sits and two entirely different teams appear: with less than 50% of the bets on them, the Pirates win 71% of the time, and with less than 50% of the money on them, 76%. Same team, same roster, same conditions. The only thing that changed is where the public put its money, and that alone is worth up to a 25 point jump in win rate. We'll let you come to your own conclusion, the numbers are the numbers, but it's a harsh reality to face: when we can pull the curtain back on team after team and find the same direct correlation between public betting and outcomes, "coincidence" stops covering for a league in direct partnership with sportsbooks and prediction markets. So again, give us the Pirates as a favorite, but don't forget there's extra "pressure" applied to these games. The Pirates and Diamondbacks are both 55-52, tied for the final Wild Card spot, playing each other head to head, these are the games that decide a race like this. We're not projecting playoffs in July, but let's just say it plainly: if the MLB wanted to give one team in this race a leg up, a team it would benefit from keeping alive, it's Paul Skenes and the Pittsburgh Pirates, not the Arizona Diamondbacks. Convenient timing for the Pirates to be sitting in the exact spot our systems flag.

Coming out of the WNBA All-Star break, it's safe to say the Connecticut Sun are one of, if not the, worst team in the entire WNBA. However, we say this time and time again, especially in the "spread sports" where the majority of the action is betting against the number: the quality of the team does not matter at all. The Sun are 7-20 in the standings, but against the spread they are 14-13, and for reference, that's better than the defending champion Las Vegas Aces. You would have made more money this season betting the Connecticut Sun than the Las Vegas Aces. You'd be naive to think the X's and O's matter. Once you operate without the need to break down meaningless X's and O's, you open yourself up to betting these "bad" teams, and that's where the opportunity sits. No casual bettor or WNBA fan is opening a sportsbook app and willfully putting money on the Connecticut Sun, it's just not going to happen, and the people setting the lines know that better than anyone. Put yourself in the shoes of a risk manager: if you know the public refuses to bet a team no matter the number, you don't have to give them a fair number. You shade the spread a point or two past where it belongs, the crowd lays the inflated line anyway because they were never betting the Sun regardless, and the bad team starts covering at a rate its record says it shouldn't. That's not a Connecticut theory, it's measurable league wide: WNBA teams receiving more than 60% of the spread bets are 40-55 against the spread this season. So while fans and bettors come out of the All-Star break doing their research, breaking down matchups and X's and O's, 69% of them have landed on the side of the Washington Mystics tonight. In a league directly partnered with FanDuel, where the heavily bet side goes 40-55 against the number, it seems like the partnership is working out great for FanDuel and not so well for the public. The Sun have been covering in spots for anyone willing to look past the standings!